TV Sports Ratings

Although the NFL Network tends to be an afterthought during the off-season (if there is such a thing anymore), recent developments may hurt its standing from September-February.

Nielsen Media recently released its universe estimates for cable channels as of June 2008 and the news is not good for NFLN.

At the start of the 2007 regular season, NFLN was in just over 44 million homes - its highest levels of the year.  However, just nine months later, the NFLN universe has dwindled to just over 40 million homes, among the lowest levels since Nielsen began tracking NFLN distribution in November 2006.

The most recent blow to NFLN came from Dish Network, which moved the channel from its Top 100 package to the Top 200.  This is estimated to have cost NFLN about 4 million subs.  This comes on the heels of the neverending Comcast dispute, as well as issues with numerous other MSOs. 

To put this number in some further context, consider these channels - all of whom have wider distribution than NLFN:

Fox Business Network:  41.8 million homes

• Although it launched just over 7 months ago, FBN has made huge initial distribition strides

FIT TV:  43.2 million homes

• Saw this on at the gym a few times.  Not sure what it is, but they run Gilad shows.

VH1 Classic:  52.6 million homes

BBC America:  60 million homes

ESPN Classic:  62.7 million homes

• These are some of the least-watched ad-supported cable channels with significant distribution. 

Also, several other sports-themed channels (Golf, Versus, Speed) are in about 35 million more homes than NFLN - that’s nearly double the distribution. 

Without a resolution to these carriage limitations, NFLN will continue to struggle.

After bidding over $1 billion for the rights to MLB’s All-Star Game, Playoffs and World Series from 1990-1993, CBS announced that the Saturday Game of the Week - a tradition on NBC for over 30 years - would assume a lesser presence.  CBS sporadically scheduled 16 Saturday afternoon telecasts (often going weeks without a game) - a sharp contrast from the roughly 30 per season seen on NBC.

In hindsight, the reduction was both a symptom and accelerator of MLB’s migration from an enterprise driven by national revenue to one dependent on local media.  The rise of cable drove local rights skyward and the fewer games given to CBS and ESPN (whose Sunday Night exclusive window also began in 1990), the more to be sold to regional sports networks who were desperate for content and fueled by the duel revenue streams of advertising and subscriber fees.

With a larger consumer base for both streams, teams in big markets cleaned up and the revenue disparity between the haves and have-nots reached new heights (see Yankees/MSG deal). 

By the time the much-maligned CBS/MLB contract came to an end in 1993, the Saturday Game of the Week was drawing about 40% fewer viewers than NBC garnered just 5 years earlier - heavy erosion even by the standards of the cable era. 

Only after two seasons of the ill-fated Baseball Network (and a players’ strike that wiped out the 1994 World Series) did the Game of the Week return on Fox, with 18 Saturday windows starting in June and extending through the remainder of the season.

Although the return was generally welcome, 1996 ratings for FOX were about 1/3 lower than the CBS levels from 1993 - numbers which were considered anemic by MLB standards at the time. 

Only the steroid-inflated home run craze of 1998 moved the ratings needle in any significant way, but those gains were short-lived.  By 2007, the Game of the Week had drawn its smallest audience since 1996 with younger demos hitting all-time lows. 

There is no shame in erosion in this era of multi-platform saturation and audience fragmentation and even at these levels it pays for FOX to keep it on the air.  With the bulk of their investment devoted to the post-season, keeping a weekly presence on-air is a must.  In addition, MLB is the dominant content provider for the many FOX-controlled regional sports networks and what is good for the sport is good for FOX on both a national and local level. 

Whether the Game of the Week has lost its meaning in an ESPN/MLB.tv/Extra Innings world is an easily answered question at this point.  But, you have to wonder what might have been if MLB had seen fit to preserve its hallmark program - or at least make a concerted effort do so - rather than make a run for the short money.  Instead, the property was irreparably damaged by CBS and the Baseball Network.

FOX’s attempt to pick up the pieces has been admirable in some respects, but the situation brings to mind what David Letterman was told after NBC offered him the Tonight Show:  they are offering you the Jay Leno show, not the Johnny Carson Tonight Show - that’s gone.